OSU-DNA
05-14-2010, 03:01 PM
At the end of the day all of the sizing and realignments are predicated on money and opportunity. The NCAA has a rule which requires a conference to have 12 members in order to have a post season conference championship game for football. The PAC-10, BIG-10 (11) and the Big East do not have 12 teams and hence no additional money making conference championship game.
With the creation of the BIG-10 network and the SEC deal with CBS and ESPN, these conferences now have a substantial revenue lead versus the rest of the major conferences. The BIG-10 payout per team in roughly 22 Million and the SEC is in the 17 Million range. The BIG-12 for comparison produces media revenue averaging roughly 9M and change.
The Big-10 indicated their desire to expand their conference and obviously does not want their average payday to decline. The BIG-10 lacks entry to the largest media market around NYC. There is also a fertile TV market to their west and Notre Dame presents an interesting addition of national and international market opportunities if they were to join the BIG-10.
The PAC-10 would not want to be left behind, their current media revenue is roughly the same as the BIG-12 and the SEC does not want to be left behind whenever their is a discussion about money.
One thing to clarify is once you have access to a media market, you do not receive more money for increased viewership for the same market. So take Dallas-FT. Worth for example. UT, A&M, TT, SMU, Baylor and TCU would all be perceived as bringing access to the DFW market. However, if you only had UT and A&M you would still be credited with the same amount of market access. This is why adding teams to your conference in other media footprints than what you currently possess improves a conference's ability to increase media revenue.
BIG-10
A rumored offer to Missouri opens to the BIG-10 the St. Louis and KC media markets. Missouri would bring a lot of money to the table. The BIG-10 eyes would then look to the East and bring Rutgers and either Syracuse or Connecticut. An expansion to 16 teams would mean an invite for Nebraska and Notre Dame. If ND turns the BIG-10 down then the left over school from Syracuse or Connecticut might make the cut or they could go for Pitt.
I think an expansion to 16 places extreme pressure on ND and we might actually see them join a conference. In the interim, look for ND to sign many long term contracts to sew up as many games as possible in an attempt to keep their options open.
PAC-10
They would not want to be left behind. Bringing Colorado and Utah would provide them two major media markets but after getting to 12 members they would struggle expanding to 16 teams without attracting more Big-12 members.
SEC
While we see rumors of offers to Florida State, I see this and a raid of the ACC teams as only occurring if SEC is unable to attract UT, A&M, OU and OSU. The ACC teams provide only an overlap in market and are not as valuable in a media negotiation as providing new markets.
BIG-12
Can survive if only one team leaves by obtaining a replacement. The problem is that several of the BIG-12 teams present prime opportunity for several conferences and if one team were to leave it is likely that several will opt out.
OSU
It is essential that we win a seat during the musical chairs. And, to a great extent it is in our interest to go where UT goes. Our prime recruiting territory is Texas and maintaining the linkage is key to our future. If we approach this from a UT perspective, while they would like to keep the Big-12, if that is caving then it is more likely that they would want to be aligned with the PAC-10 rather than SEC. Why, not only from a competitive standpoint in reducing the number of opportunities to play for national titles, but the history of the SEC is one of continual cheating.
From my standpoint I could see an interim arrangement with the PAC-10 for marketing rights to our BIG-12 and PAC-10 games, but longer term a merger would be in our best interests to remove the risk of falling out of the loop in a last minute negotiation.
I could see the PAC-10 taking Colorado, UT, A&M, OU and OSU. But we sit on the last chair and we need to create more certainty by pushing for the merger.
With the creation of the BIG-10 network and the SEC deal with CBS and ESPN, these conferences now have a substantial revenue lead versus the rest of the major conferences. The BIG-10 payout per team in roughly 22 Million and the SEC is in the 17 Million range. The BIG-12 for comparison produces media revenue averaging roughly 9M and change.
The Big-10 indicated their desire to expand their conference and obviously does not want their average payday to decline. The BIG-10 lacks entry to the largest media market around NYC. There is also a fertile TV market to their west and Notre Dame presents an interesting addition of national and international market opportunities if they were to join the BIG-10.
The PAC-10 would not want to be left behind, their current media revenue is roughly the same as the BIG-12 and the SEC does not want to be left behind whenever their is a discussion about money.
One thing to clarify is once you have access to a media market, you do not receive more money for increased viewership for the same market. So take Dallas-FT. Worth for example. UT, A&M, TT, SMU, Baylor and TCU would all be perceived as bringing access to the DFW market. However, if you only had UT and A&M you would still be credited with the same amount of market access. This is why adding teams to your conference in other media footprints than what you currently possess improves a conference's ability to increase media revenue.
BIG-10
A rumored offer to Missouri opens to the BIG-10 the St. Louis and KC media markets. Missouri would bring a lot of money to the table. The BIG-10 eyes would then look to the East and bring Rutgers and either Syracuse or Connecticut. An expansion to 16 teams would mean an invite for Nebraska and Notre Dame. If ND turns the BIG-10 down then the left over school from Syracuse or Connecticut might make the cut or they could go for Pitt.
I think an expansion to 16 places extreme pressure on ND and we might actually see them join a conference. In the interim, look for ND to sign many long term contracts to sew up as many games as possible in an attempt to keep their options open.
PAC-10
They would not want to be left behind. Bringing Colorado and Utah would provide them two major media markets but after getting to 12 members they would struggle expanding to 16 teams without attracting more Big-12 members.
SEC
While we see rumors of offers to Florida State, I see this and a raid of the ACC teams as only occurring if SEC is unable to attract UT, A&M, OU and OSU. The ACC teams provide only an overlap in market and are not as valuable in a media negotiation as providing new markets.
BIG-12
Can survive if only one team leaves by obtaining a replacement. The problem is that several of the BIG-12 teams present prime opportunity for several conferences and if one team were to leave it is likely that several will opt out.
OSU
It is essential that we win a seat during the musical chairs. And, to a great extent it is in our interest to go where UT goes. Our prime recruiting territory is Texas and maintaining the linkage is key to our future. If we approach this from a UT perspective, while they would like to keep the Big-12, if that is caving then it is more likely that they would want to be aligned with the PAC-10 rather than SEC. Why, not only from a competitive standpoint in reducing the number of opportunities to play for national titles, but the history of the SEC is one of continual cheating.
From my standpoint I could see an interim arrangement with the PAC-10 for marketing rights to our BIG-12 and PAC-10 games, but longer term a merger would be in our best interests to remove the risk of falling out of the loop in a last minute negotiation.
I could see the PAC-10 taking Colorado, UT, A&M, OU and OSU. But we sit on the last chair and we need to create more certainty by pushing for the merger.