Health Care -- Looks like it passed.

[andyokstate]

How do you think it will affect the average US person who already has health insurance?

[Razor_Poke]

I'm not sure, but I doubt this effects anyone for years. This was nothing but legislative trickery that will get tied up in the Senate then the courts.

Then, after November, who knows what will become of it.

[WyomingOSUAlum]

I'm probably going to be self-employed soon. So, if I understand correctly, I'll get to pay for my family's health coverage AND be taxed to pay for the promise of future coverage simultaneously. So I'll be paying twice and only getting it once, right?

[WyomingOSUAlum]

And, on a national perspective, I'm still waiting for somebody to explain how spending trillions more dollars is going to save money.

Seriously, if the private sector's health insurance profit margin is around 5%, and the government takes it over from the evil insurance companies, and does so at a break-even rate, then our maximum savings will be the 5%, right?

Of course, given the federal government's track record, anybody who expects any kind of savings has got some explaining to do.

[OSUFan]

It's going to mess up student loans too. I've heard from several people at OSU who work with student loans and are extremely upset with what is going to happen.

[wood911]

The only date I have heard was Dec 31, 2008, but I don't think they are going to make it retroactive. My guess is the new taxes to fund this will start soon if not immediately. For some reason, I am thinking the new payroll taxes will not start until jan 1. I may be wrong on that, tho. SOme of the good stuff will start immediately in order to make everybody think this is a goodd thing and some of it is, just not much. All children with pre-existing conditions will start immediately, young people can stay on their parents policies until age 26 immediately, and the senior prescription drugs are going to be covered differently for starters. Most of the other stuff starts kicking in in 2014, after the next presidential election. He doesn't want to hurt his chances on re-election:vomit-smiley-001:. Also, the military Tri-care insurance and anybody that gets any VA medical benefits will be impacted. Since it doesn't impact me, I can't tell you how.
As far as costs, they are saying it will $940 billion over 10 years. To get that number you have to start taxes now and not implement the majority of the stuff until 2014 meaning you are comparing 10 years of income to 6 years of expense. you also have to double count $500 billion that currently goes to social security and Medicare that they plan on saving by ending corruption in the current systems, ignore 250 billion in payments to doctors that are currently being made and a gaggle of other tricks. My guess is it will cost us all around $500 billion a year more than their estimates and somewhere around $5 trillion over 10 years. Bottom line is this turkey can't fly.
Check out the Cloward-Piven Strategy. It is the only thing that makes any sense out of what is going on. There is just no other explanation for this radical spending. If this bill is not struck down as unconstitutional, we will be bankrupt within 10 years. Medicare, as it currently stands, will be broke in 6 years and, tho, social security has enough money paid in to be solvent until about 2037, all the money has been lent to our government who is broke so any money paid out of social security is being borrowed to make the payments.
Here is a web site for the taxes being impemented.
http://townhall.com/blog/g/27979e99-f83a-4ba4-8591-a49c4ca68a91

Also Clowadr-Piven Strategy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloward%E2%80%93Piven_strategy

[wood911]

If anybody has the full version of this, I would like to see it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7JNbauwGPY

[jakeman]

If anybody has the full version of this, I would like to see it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7JNbauwGPY


I watched it live. He said it. I thought I misheard him so I back it up and played it again. He said it.

"Overwhelming majority voted for Socialism" that's what he said. Kinda makes ya shudder don't it???? In his world, that's what he and his supporters want. Socialism. I don't believe that's what an overwhelming majority of the American people really want. I guess we will see in November.

[MajorMike]

I don't get it all, but I am assuming the world will continue just like it did after Roe v. Wade and after HangingChadGate and the firearms law and so on.

I guess you can now all be welcomed to my world of one health care provider who gives you crappy care and you have to wait a day or more to see; then if you need a specialist referral, be prepared to wait a month or so until you get your prelim visit with them. Another 3 years and both me and the wife will be under that care system for the rest of our lives and the kids will be until they are 23, so I'm not bothering to learn any new system.

[Vulgar Display of Orange]

I thought for sure that all of the doctors would have left the US and there would be death panels roaming the streets by now.

[pistolpete2002]

I thought for sure that all of the doctors would have left the US and there would be death panels roaming the streets by now.

I thought for sure that VdO would make a stupid, dumbass comment by now.... Oh wait... he DID!!!!!

[MajorMike]

Ok, I don't get that, either. Past animosity, I assume?

[MemphisPoke]

I thought for sure that all of the doctors would have left the US and there would be death panels roaming the streets by now.

You know Vulgar you are partially right. Check this out and then come back with one of your famous lines.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/62812


More than 29 percent (29.2) percent of the nearly 1,200 doctors who responded to the survey said they would quit the profession or retire early if health reform legislation becomes law. If a public option were included in the legislation, as several liberal Senators have indicated they would like, the number would jump to 45.7 percent
--------------------------------------

some more to think about:

Please allow me to emphasize that 96 percent of the physicians surveyed in our report are in favor of health reform, in some form or fashion,” she told CNSNews.com in an e-mail. “To me, the fact that so many physicians surveyed want health reform, but relatively few are in favor of the current legislation, was one of the most significant, telling results.”

Congressional Democratic leaders, meanwhile, have said that doctors favor the bill and are part of an “unprecedented coalition” of doctors rooting for its passage. The claim is based on the American Medical Association’s endorsement of the legislation in Congress.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2008 there were 661,400 physicians and surgeons within the United States. Of that number, 250,000 are members of the American Medical Association (AMA) -- and nearly 100,000 of those are medical students.

[wood911]

I don't get it all, but I am assuming the world will continue just like it did after Roe v. Wade and after HangingChadGate and the firearms law and so on.

I guess you can now all be welcomed to my world of one health care provider who gives you crappy care and you have to wait a day or more to see; then if you need a specialist referral, be prepared to wait a month or so until you get your prelim visit with them. Another 3 years and both me and the wife will be under that care system for the rest of our lives and the kids will be until they are 23, so I'm not bothering to learn any new system.
I'm surprised you don't like Tricare. My brother had the option of Tricare for life and BC/BS federal(same as Congress). He chose Tricare and says he''s happy with it. I did hear this morning that Tricare will NOT be impacted. Who knows what the truth is. "The Truth is out there".:rollseyes:

[MajorMike]

I don't hate it, per se, just that if you are military you have ONE choice of doctor and you will see them only when THEY are able to see you. If you don't agree with what they say your only recourse is the patirnt advocate, who is also an employee of the military.

[wood911]

I don't hate it, per se, just that if you are military you have ONE choice of doctor and you will see them only when THEY are able to see you. If you don't agree with what they say your only recourse is the patirnt advocate, who is also an employee of the military.
As a retiree, he gets to pick a private physician for his primary care doctor so maybe it gets better when you retire. The primary care physician has to recommend him going to a speciailist, tho. There is usually about a 7-10 day delay after the recommendation to get into a specialist unless it is an emergency.
My insurance allows me to make appointments with whoever I choose, but specialists usually have a waiting period of 1-2 weeks due to the specialists' patient load. Not a lot of difference in time, just process.

[OSUFan]

I heard something about a possible national sales tax to pay for it. Anyone hear this too?

[WyomingOSUAlum]

The money to pay for it has got to come from somewhere, so I wouldn't be shocked.

[PokesFanatic]

The money to pay for it has got to come from somewhere, so I wouldn't be shocked.

They'll just print the money like they usually do.

[bleedorange]

The money to pay for it has got to come from somewhere, so I wouldn't be shocked.

They will forcibly take it from you. It's inevitable...just lay back and enjoy it. :vomit-smiley-001:

[MemphisPoke]

The money to pay for it has got to come from somewhere, so I wouldn't be shocked.

Can you say China?

[wood911]

Here is a strategy I was sent by an investment advisor.
http;//market-ticker.denninger.net
Health Care: Arbitrage Obama And The Dems
Yes, I mean it.
And yes, I've read the Health Bill. Both the 2,000+ page original and The House changes as voted upon.

Here's the bottom line:
•If you refuse to buy health insurance, you will be fined on a sliding scale that amounts to 2% of your AGI. So if you make $100,000 a year, you could be fined $2,000 for "refusing" to buy insurance.
•You cannot buy a catastrophic policy any more. The "cheapest" acceptable policy will cost somewhere around $15,000 for a single person, and over $20,000 for a family. This is, for most people, more than five times the maximum possible fine - each and every year. The law makes it effectively impossible to maintain an existing catastrophic policy as they "renew" every year, and should any change be made you are then forced to buy something "acceptable" in the law (or pay the fine.)
•When the "pre-existing condition" bar comes down you cannot be charged more or denied coverage due to pre-existing conditions.
•I fully expect 20-50% premium increases immediately, and for the next three years sequentially, in all existing policies. This is precisely what the banks did in front of the CARD act becoming effective, and it will happen here as well. That is the cause of the short-term rocket shot in the health-related stocks this morning.
•In addition the capital gains tax changes will do severe damage to capital formation immediately, and these changes will become especially severe starting in 2014. The market will anticipate these changes and react accordingly, although you certainly wouldn't know it today.
Ok, this one's easy.

When the fines and pre-existing coverage "stop-out" go into effect (now for kids, in a couple of years for the rest) drop all coverage for those affected.

Why?

Because:

•The fine is 1/5th or less the cost of the "insurance."
•For routine care, you now can negotiate for your care before it is provided. It will be cheaper to do so than to buy the insurance - for routine events. Don't try to tell me it's not either - I've been carrying a catastrophic-only policy now for more than a decade, and as a consequence I've negotiated these fees and costs for routine things and saved tens of thousands compared to simply "buying a full-boat policy." The only reason for me to carry the "catastrophe" policy - the possibility of being screwed if I developed a serious condition and thus got excluded - has just been erased by this law, effective in a couple of years.
•If you have a catastrophe of any form, buy the insurance at that point in time. You cannot be turned down or charged more.
Screw the government. They are the ones who set the standards - we simply have to live with them, and this is the only logical action to take given what they have just done.

Is there a risk in this strategy? Sure. You could have a "zero notice" catastrophe before you (or someone with a power of attorney) could buy a policy. So you have to be able to survive that sort of "short-term" event - but remember, you're going to be banking $10-20k per person during the time you're running "naked." So do exactly that - bank it for a year or two - so you have the ability to cover the instant expense from one of those "aw crap!" catastrophic circumstances. Fact is, they don't happen often and in a year or so you can have a very nice cushion against them.

Businesses will be dropping people like flies from business-covered "insurance"; there will be no reason for anyone as an employer to be providing this "benefit" into an environment where insurance prices will double - and probably double twice - in the next four years. If you think not, look at what was done to credit-card holders in front of the provisions of the CARD act going into effect.

This, by the way, will bankrupt the insurance companies in the end. Nobody will buy until they have HIV, Cancer or some other serious illness - then they will buy, and the companies will have to pay - with no lifetime caps or exclusions for pre-existing conditions.

The health care companies that are getting a rocket shot today in the stock market are being bought by fools.

If you have any belief whatsoever in the efficient market hypothesis this is exactly what people will do as the effective dates for these provisions approach, as it will save them ten thousand dollars a year or more - each. The insurance companies will instantaneously lose the "pool" of healthy people who buy against risk - rather, they will have a pool of all sick people who buy against known costs.

Forget it folks - this is the end of the health industry in America, and I will be looking for the recognition in the market (as expressed by technical analysis on the stocks in this sector) that the efficient market will come to the fore.

The intention of The Democrats (and liberals generally) in this legislation is clear and impossible to hide - they intend to completely destroy private health care in favor of a fully-government-run single-payer system. The efficient market guarantees this outcome given the law they passed, and they know it.
I cannot stop this idiocy but I can sure attempt to profit from it.

I am looking to establish the largest targeted short positions of my investing career if and when the technicals confirm that this obvious arbitrage is about to, or is, taking place.

This is one place where a fistful of PUTs can easily turn thousands into hundreds of thousands, and is an extremely-high probability play.

[jakeman]

Here is a strategy I was sent by an investment advisor.
http;//market-ticker.denninger.net
Health Care: Arbitrage Obama And The Dems
Yes, I mean it.
And yes, I've read the Health Bill. Both the 2,000+ page original and The House changes as voted upon.

Here's the bottom line:
•If you refuse to buy health insurance, you will be fined on a sliding scale that amounts to 2% of your AGI. So if you make $100,000 a year, you could be fined $2,000 for "refusing" to buy insurance.
•You cannot buy a catastrophic policy any more. The "cheapest" acceptable policy will cost somewhere around $15,000 for a single person, and over $20,000 for a family. This is, for most people, more than five times the maximum possible fine - each and every year. The law makes it effectively impossible to maintain an existing catastrophic policy as they "renew" every year, and should any change be made you are then forced to buy something "acceptable" in the law (or pay the fine.)
•When the "pre-existing condition" bar comes down you cannot be charged more or denied coverage due to pre-existing conditions.
•I fully expect 20-50% premium increases immediately, and for the next three years sequentially, in all existing policies. This is precisely what the banks did in front of the CARD act becoming effective, and it will happen here as well. That is the cause of the short-term rocket shot in the health-related stocks this morning.
•In addition the capital gains tax changes will do severe damage to capital formation immediately, and these changes will become especially severe starting in 2014. The market will anticipate these changes and react accordingly, although you certainly wouldn't know it today.
Ok, this one's easy.

When the fines and pre-existing coverage "stop-out" go into effect (now for kids, in a couple of years for the rest) drop all coverage for those affected.

Why?

Because:

•The fine is 1/5th or less the cost of the "insurance."
•For routine care, you now can negotiate for your care before it is provided. It will be cheaper to do so than to buy the insurance - for routine events. Don't try to tell me it's not either - I've been carrying a catastrophic-only policy now for more than a decade, and as a consequence I've negotiated these fees and costs for routine things and saved tens of thousands compared to simply "buying a full-boat policy." The only reason for me to carry the "catastrophe" policy - the possibility of being screwed if I developed a serious condition and thus got excluded - has just been erased by this law, effective in a couple of years.
•If you have a catastrophe of any form, buy the insurance at that point in time. You cannot be turned down or charged more.
Screw the government. They are the ones who set the standards - we simply have to live with them, and this is the only logical action to take given what they have just done.

Is there a risk in this strategy? Sure. You could have a "zero notice" catastrophe before you (or someone with a power of attorney) could buy a policy. So you have to be able to survive that sort of "short-term" event - but remember, you're going to be banking $10-20k per person during the time you're running "naked." So do exactly that - bank it for a year or two - so you have the ability to cover the instant expense from one of those "aw crap!" catastrophic circumstances. Fact is, they don't happen often and in a year or so you can have a very nice cushion against them.

Businesses will be dropping people like flies from business-covered "insurance"; there will be no reason for anyone as an employer to be providing this "benefit" into an environment where insurance prices will double - and probably double twice - in the next four years. If you think not, look at what was done to credit-card holders in front of the provisions of the CARD act going into effect.

This, by the way, will bankrupt the insurance companies in the end. Nobody will buy until they have HIV, Cancer or some other serious illness - then they will buy, and the companies will have to pay - with no lifetime caps or exclusions for pre-existing conditions.

The health care companies that are getting a rocket shot today in the stock market are being bought by fools.

If you have any belief whatsoever in the efficient market hypothesis this is exactly what people will do as the effective dates for these provisions approach, as it will save them ten thousand dollars a year or more - each. The insurance companies will instantaneously lose the "pool" of healthy people who buy against risk - rather, they will have a pool of all sick people who buy against known costs.

Forget it folks - this is the end of the health industry in America, and I will be looking for the recognition in the market (as expressed by technical analysis on the stocks in this sector) that the efficient market will come to the fore.

The intention of The Democrats (and liberals generally) in this legislation is clear and impossible to hide - they intend to completely destroy private health care in favor of a fully-government-run single-payer system. The efficient market guarantees this outcome given the law they passed, and they know it.
I cannot stop this idiocy but I can sure attempt to profit from it.

I am looking to establish the largest targeted short positions of my investing career if and when the technicals confirm that this obvious arbitrage is about to, or is, taking place.

This is one place where a fistful of PUTs can easily turn thousands into hundreds of thousands, and is an extremely-high probability play.

Nothing new in there. This is pretty much what people who aren't blind or ignorant of the way things work have been saying since this started.

[FloridaPoke]

I've said from the beginning, there is no penalty high enough for rational, smart people to pay the penalty instead of premiums 5-10x the penalty, when there is a guarantee of getting reinsured when you really need it.

I own property in Florida. Unlike Tornados, there is always a 2-3 day advance notice of hurricane risk. I sure would like to only buy hurricane/wind coverage (very expensive stuff) only in that window of time every 4-6 years, when and as if needed. Of course, with the insurance company only taking the high risks and elimination of low risks, they would go bankrupt almost immediately. So my nirvana wouldn't last very long unless the Federal Gov decided to insure only the bad risks. Even still, in equilibrium, if the Fed Gov't decided to do so by placing a fine on me for not buying hurricane coverage, there is not enough political will to make the penalty high enough for me to buy coverage instead.

Entitlements to the lower and middle class are addictive. And there is no antitoxin. New capital investment in businesses, research, innovation and risk ventures (both large and small) will plummet. And where people are wrong is the effects of this will be immediate, as capital markets move well in advance and in anticipation of future events. I suggest a complete reallocation of any investment portfolios you have. It won't be long before US Treasuries will yield higher than equities. Of course, this is bad enough, I'm not sure that Treasuries won't be higher risk than equities, giving rise to rational pricing of higher yielding Treasuries.

[wood911]

re; FloridaPoke
Entitlements to the lower and middle class are addictive. And there is no antitoxin. This is a problem because to fix the system there wil be some pain and I'm not sure people will tolerate it untiil there is no alternative.

I suggest a complete reallocation of any investment portfolios you have. It won't be long before US Treasuries will yield higher than equities. Of course, this is bad enough, I'm not sure that Treasuries won't be higher risk than equities, giving rise to rational pricing of higher yielding Treasuries.
You are absolutely right. The paper yesterday said Berkshire Hathaway could borrow at a better rate the the U.S. government. There is a bill being considered to force some portion of everybody's 401k/IRA to be invested in treasury notes to provide the gov't with another source of funds. Investments in China has some problems as well. Brazil or India may be about as safe as it gets.

BTW, it is welfare not entitlements.(:>)

[pistolpete2002]

BTW, it is welfare not entitlements.(:>)



Whatever it is, IT'S RIDICULOUS!!!!!! :mad:

[pistolpete2002]

I guess I'm just not as smart as the gov't. There are 300 million people in the US and the gov't is going to try and make things tougher on 276 million (89%) just so the freeloading 32 million (11%) insured can get more freeloads????


Maybe my math is wrong, but that just doesn't make sense.....

[Ivan]

Your math seems right to me. I dont get it either.

[FloridaPoke]

This bill is a symptom, not the disease. The disease is less than 600 people (both sides of the political spectrum in 3 branches of government) making the assumption that 300 million people are too dumb to think for themselves or take care of themselves........and too arrogant to simply let nature and market forces do their thing.

[WyomingOSUAlum]

I just got a quote for family health insurance coverage. It will cost me just under $350 per month. I'll never be able to drive a new vehicle again, and I'm OK with that.

And, because I want to be left alone and pay my own way, well, I'm an extremist !!!!

[wood911]

I guess I'm just not as smart as the gov't. There are 300 million people in the US and the gov't is going to try and make things tougher on 276 million (89%) just so the freeloading 32 million (11%) insured can get more freeloads????


Maybe my math is wrong, but that just doesn't make sense.....
There's only about 12 million(4%) that can't afford it, most fall in a cetegory where they have chosen not to buy insurance.

[wood911]

I sent this to Tom Cole, my congressman, after I heard him implying the states were wasting their time filing lawsuits.

I heard your negative comments this morning about the possibility of the legal actions working to stop the healthcare bill and was very disappointed that you would not be more aggressive about getting this pig-in-a-poke reversed. Negative comments serve no real purpose at this point. I'm not saying you need to be a cheerleader but it does have a chance and, if it fails, there appears to be enough states interested that a constitutional change very well could be pursued. To just give up is not what made this country great. We have been trying go along and get along far too long, it is time to get proactive and get people enthused. If I misread what you were trying to say, I apologize, otherwise, get enthused or get out of the way.
Sincerely,

[pistolpete2002]

There's only about 12 million(4%) that can't afford it, most fall in a cetegory where they have chosen not to buy insurance.

Oh well if you put it that way, I'm fine with it!!!!! :D


I just can't believe this is actually happening. I'm about ready to grab a pitchfork and a torch and head to Washington.

It's just too bad I won't have time to do that, since now I'm going to have to get a 2nd job to be able to afford healthcare, just so the people who can't afford it can have it!!!

[MemphisPoke]

The link below is to what Neal Boortz has to say about it. I believe that he pretty well sums it up in a nutshell.

Titled: Game over....Let me tell you what happens next.

http://boortz.com/nealz_nuze/2010/03/game-over-let-me-tell-you-what.html

It speaks to what Florida was saying regarding business, as well as the long term effects (or what they might be).

Read it and see if you don't follow his logic. A very sobering thought if it all comes true.

[osupsycho]

I cannot stop this idiocy but I can sure attempt to profit from it.

I am looking to establish the largest targeted short positions of my investing career if and when the technicals confirm that this obvious arbitrage is about to, or is, taking place.

This is one place where a fistful of PUTs can easily turn thousands into hundreds of thousands, and is an extremely-high probability play.

I am looking for the silver lining and would like your opinion Florida of this part. Does it make sense to go out and short some insurance company stocks. I have been working it back and forth in my head and thinking about doing this but wonder what I might be missing?

[FloridaPoke]

Notice the guy said "when the technicals confirm". Meaning the answer in my opinion is yes.......but timing is everything. I haven't studied it closely enough to know the "when". I would say if you are going to short, you should take money you don't mind losing and buy the longest dated puts you can find.

[OSUFan]

Democrats claim the deficit will be reduced $100 billion in the next 10 years with this legislation. How?

[FloridaPoke]

Democrats claim the deficit will be reduced $100 billion in the next 10 years with this legislation. How?

They demanded that the CBO use future growth numbers and future health care cost reductions that are simply not achievable. The CBO, for the first time, has lost all independence and credibility.

[wood911]

Democrats claim the deficit will be reduced $100 billion in the next 10 years with this legislation. How?

The next step will be a value added tax(VAT). In simple terms, that's a national sales tax, probably around 1%, just my guess. I don't know how they will keep that from impacting those making less than $200,000/year.

[WyomingOSUAlum]

Don't forget that taxes will be collected immediately to fund this, while no expenditures will be outgoing.

They will take the money and it will go elsewhere to make the short term balance sheet look magnificent for the next presidential election.

Then, when the claims start coming in after the election...it goes down hill.

[JimBob]

They demanded that the CBO use future growth numbers and future health care cost reductions that are simply not achievable. The CBO, for the first time, has lost all independence and credibility.


The CBO is required to use the information provided to it to make these projections. This was deliberate by the Dems, and as a non-partisan, the CBO could do nothing about it.

[pistolpete2002]

I know at one time there was talk that members of congress were going to be exempt from the new health care bill, is that still the case??

And if it is, why in the hell would they think everyone else would want gov't controlled health care when the ones making the laws knows its so bad that they're opted out of it???

Does that makes sense to anyone, Dems or Reps???

[Ivan]

All of congress is exempt, and the president and his staff, last I heard.

[OSUFan]

Take a look at this link. It says they are NOT exempt but if you look at the comments particularly DelDolly's then it sounds like they were and have volunteered to participate with the rest of the nation.

Are exempt or not? (http://mediamatters.org/research/201003250022)