MajorMike
02-24-2010, 09:31 AM
So, ok at this point, barring a loss at home to Neb, I say we are in. We will def be sub 40 in RPI and a top 30 SOS in the #1 RPI league. We don't need a bunch of silly tourneys (like UW winning P10 or arKy winning SEC or someone odd winning the A-10, that sort of thing) and we should be good. We are around RPI 28-29 now, and even losses (IF they happen) to 3 teams in the top 25 including #1 won't drop us. The Neb game even when we win, will probably hurt us more than losses in the other 3 games.
Anyway, so at 8-8 with an RPI of around 34-36, we look like a 9 seed. 8-9 seed sucks, because its a toss-up game and you have to play the #1 team a few nights later.
I would almost rather be someone like an 12. Yes, it may seem like, 'oh it sucks to be an 12 and not an 8,' but look at the up side. If we were an 12, we would get to play a projected 5 seed (Zags, Butler, Xavier, BYU, Temple, etc). 5 seeds are most generally a really nice mid-major that won't get the major conf credit for being a top seed (1-4). The ONLY drawback to that is Zags is quite possibly a home game (will be a 4/5 seeding pair in Spokane). Then after playing a 5, you get a chance at the 4 seed (Temple, Vandy, New Mex, Wisc, etc). To me, that would be a dream march, getting to start with Butler and then play New Mex/Wisc or the like next.
The next best would be an 11, because you get to play a 6/3 bracket. 6's look like Xavier, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Richmond (plus any of the B12 teams behind the 2 Kansas schools could be a 6 but we can't play them). 3s look like WVa, NM, Pitt, any of the 4s listed before, etc. Not as good when you have to play a Pitt or G'Town, but still very feasable.
I am not saying we are right now sweet 16 material, but I certainly think, and so do most people, that we can play with (or loose to) just about anyone on any given night. Having a favorable bracket could go a long ways to allowing us to play better and go farther.
By the way, there is virtually zero chance of us getting to play in OKC, regardless of our seed. Undoubtedly KU will have their pod there, and we can;t play them in the 2nd round, and most likely if KSU gets a 2 seed they will get their pod there, same story. I don't see any of UK, Cuse, Nova, Purdue, Duke, WVa, Pitt, GTown, UNM or the like looking favorably on coming to OKC as a 2 or 3 seed. UK will have New Orleans and UNM will have San Jose. The only real way would be that IF KSU dropped to a 3 seed and IF all the east slots weere full up and it made more sense to send KSU to NO or SJ and then send Pitt or GTown to OKC and then IF OSU falls to an 11 seed. Unlikley, tho, that KSU doesn't get their pod in the other OKC slot. Most of the 1st rounds are in the east and very few teams west of us will be a top 4 seed.
They absolute BEST (IMO cause I don't see any way the OKC thing happens, which would actually be better) thing that could happen for OSU is we win at least one of UT/KU/atm (honestly preferably UT because that would most likely put us above them in the pecking order) then get to the B12 Finals or even a very strong showing in the B12 tourney (beat the people around us like Mizzou, BU, and maybe loose a nail biter to KSU or KU in the semis or finals) and by having beaten the other 'supposed' 5-6 seeds in the conf get bumped up to a 6 seed. It is entirely possible to do so, as our RPI would be 25ish for sure. Much work left to do.
Sillier things HAVE happened, after all; this is March Madness.
Anyway, so at 8-8 with an RPI of around 34-36, we look like a 9 seed. 8-9 seed sucks, because its a toss-up game and you have to play the #1 team a few nights later.
I would almost rather be someone like an 12. Yes, it may seem like, 'oh it sucks to be an 12 and not an 8,' but look at the up side. If we were an 12, we would get to play a projected 5 seed (Zags, Butler, Xavier, BYU, Temple, etc). 5 seeds are most generally a really nice mid-major that won't get the major conf credit for being a top seed (1-4). The ONLY drawback to that is Zags is quite possibly a home game (will be a 4/5 seeding pair in Spokane). Then after playing a 5, you get a chance at the 4 seed (Temple, Vandy, New Mex, Wisc, etc). To me, that would be a dream march, getting to start with Butler and then play New Mex/Wisc or the like next.
The next best would be an 11, because you get to play a 6/3 bracket. 6's look like Xavier, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Richmond (plus any of the B12 teams behind the 2 Kansas schools could be a 6 but we can't play them). 3s look like WVa, NM, Pitt, any of the 4s listed before, etc. Not as good when you have to play a Pitt or G'Town, but still very feasable.
I am not saying we are right now sweet 16 material, but I certainly think, and so do most people, that we can play with (or loose to) just about anyone on any given night. Having a favorable bracket could go a long ways to allowing us to play better and go farther.
By the way, there is virtually zero chance of us getting to play in OKC, regardless of our seed. Undoubtedly KU will have their pod there, and we can;t play them in the 2nd round, and most likely if KSU gets a 2 seed they will get their pod there, same story. I don't see any of UK, Cuse, Nova, Purdue, Duke, WVa, Pitt, GTown, UNM or the like looking favorably on coming to OKC as a 2 or 3 seed. UK will have New Orleans and UNM will have San Jose. The only real way would be that IF KSU dropped to a 3 seed and IF all the east slots weere full up and it made more sense to send KSU to NO or SJ and then send Pitt or GTown to OKC and then IF OSU falls to an 11 seed. Unlikley, tho, that KSU doesn't get their pod in the other OKC slot. Most of the 1st rounds are in the east and very few teams west of us will be a top 4 seed.
They absolute BEST (IMO cause I don't see any way the OKC thing happens, which would actually be better) thing that could happen for OSU is we win at least one of UT/KU/atm (honestly preferably UT because that would most likely put us above them in the pecking order) then get to the B12 Finals or even a very strong showing in the B12 tourney (beat the people around us like Mizzou, BU, and maybe loose a nail biter to KSU or KU in the semis or finals) and by having beaten the other 'supposed' 5-6 seeds in the conf get bumped up to a 6 seed. It is entirely possible to do so, as our RPI would be 25ish for sure. Much work left to do.
Sillier things HAVE happened, after all; this is March Madness.