Big-12 RPI Update / Conf Tourney Seeding

[Pokevette]

Big-12 RPI Update / Conf Tourney Seeding


RPI / Team / W-L

5 - Texas……… 24-5
8 - Kansas……. 26-3
28 - Oklahoma.. 19-10
32 - Baylor…….. 20-8
42 - Kansas St….. 18-10
46 - Texas A&M.. 20-8
48 - Texas Tech .. 16-13
73 - Okla St…… 16-12
99 - Missouri….. 15-14
107 - Nebraska….. 17-10
154 - Iowa State…. 14-15
162 - Colorado…. 10-17

* Above rankings per www.collegerpi.com

* Teams in Bold are currently projected by that site as NCAA Tourney teams.

* Texas A&M continues to be a team to keep an eye on. They finish with @Baylor and Kansas. Finishing .500 in league could be a challenge. Keeping their RPI sub-50 also could be tough. How they do in KC could be the swing vote on an at-large bid.

* Despite last nights drubbing by Kansas, Tech has now put themselves in a pretty good place. In fact, they probably have the edge over our Cowboys at this point.

* Our Cowboys would really benefit from a couple wins this week. A good road win @Texas could make the difference for us. The biggest strike against us (perhaps fatal) is our sub .500 record against RPI Top-200 teams. That has traditionally been an elimination stat for NCAA at-large teams. Splitting these next two games would not improve that stat any. We would have to go 2-1 in the Big-12 Trny just to get to .500 in that stat.

* The Big-12 Trny is looking pretty "set" now. Still a bit of drama to play out between Texas and Kansas for the #1 seed.

#8 Nebraska vs #9 Texas A&M winner vs #1 Texas.
#7 Oklahoma State vs #10 Missouri winner vs #2 Kansas.
#6 Texas Tech vs #11 Iowa State winner vs #3 Kansas State.
#5 Oklahoma vs #12 Colorado winner vs #4 Baylor

* Pokes are probablly 8th in line for an NCAA bid right within our own conference. We not only need to continue to play hot, but we probably need some help from a team like A&M or Tech for us to have a shot. I still think it is a stretch for the Pokes to get serious NCAA consideration short of winning the Big-12 Tourney.

*NIT bid is still the most probable outcome for our Pokes.

[Inky29]

And thus the recent trend in both football and basketball continue...the what-if game. I'm getting very tired of doing this each year.

[andyokstate]

I'm still amazed that a few weeks ago, we weren't even on an NIT bubble watch, let alone an NCAA one. I like that we have definitely gotten better as the season went on. Just wish that the switch was flipped earlier in the season, as it were.

'Vette, I remember you saying earlier that no Big 12 team with a conference record of 8-8 had not received an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Why do you think it's going to happen this year? Is it just because the Big 12 has so many and those schools have decent RPIs?

[Pokevette]

Up until this year, we have never had an 8-8 team finish with a sub-50 RPI.

I researched this once, but something like 95% of the Big-12 teams with sub-50 RPI's have received NCAA bids. I think the RPI is the single best indicator of a teams chances to go to the Tourney.

This year we have several teams that may finish only 8-8, but still have sub-50 RPI's. Given that the Big-12 is the #2 overall RPI league this year, I think that will get some of our 8-8 teams in.

[CaliforniaCowboy]

I'm not buying even half of what you've got there Pokevette...

We're in BETTER shape than TT, no matter how you slice it. They're one down in the loss column, and we get OU at home minus Boy-Blake. I imagine that they will lose to Baylor in Lubbick as well (regardless of what happens to us in Austin), which would keep them a game back. Tech MIGHT pull it out, but at this point we're clearly in a better position.

I don't think that the Big12 tournament is set at all... it's all over the map even as we speak. The 1-seed is not much drama, IMO, since it doesn't really matter to anybody but UT and KU... the bigger question is who will finish witht he 4-seed; and there are a bunch of teams that could finish at 4 right now, including OSU.

I'll be happy if we can win the last two and be 9-7, then, IMO, we're AUTOMATIC for the NCAA... AUTOMATIC.

If we finish 8-8, then BU needs to win 2 and OU needs to beat MU, then we'd get ISU, then BU in the first two rounds... (then KU), which would make us AUTOMATIC for the NCAA. AUTOMATIC.

Lots of BB yet to be played, but I see three scenarios where OSU still makes the big dance, and all three are possible.

All the numbers and mumbo-jumbo aside, a streaking OSU that finishes with a 4 seed in the Tournament, is in. A streaking OSU that wins a few in the Big12, is in.

The NCAA likes a hot team, and our numbers will not be "bad" enough to keep us out (the key is that we win some more games and are still considered to be a "streaking" team).

[Pokevette]

No way you can argue (IMHO) that we are in better shape then Tech. They have a sub-50 RPI (historically the strongest predictor for the NCAA) and OSU is still above 70. Only two NCAA teams have EVER gotten an at-large bid with a 70+ RPI.

I see VERY little chance that OSU can finish as a 4-seed. The ONLY way that happens is if we win out (including @Texas) AND Texas Tech loses at home to Baylor. Finishing 4th is not even in our control. It takes help from other teams.

NO WAY are we in as good of shape as Tech.

[Boss 24]

Ooh a catfight. Haven't seen one of those on this board yet.

[CaliforniaCowboy]

No way you can argue (IMHO) that we are in better shape then Tech. They have a sub-50 RPI (historically the strongest predictor for the NCAA) and OSU is still above 70. Only two NCAA teams have EVER gotten an at-large bid with a 70+ RPI.

I see VERY little chance that OSU can finish as a 4-seed. The ONLY way that happens is if we win out (including @Texas) AND Texas Tech loses at home to Baylor. Finishing 4th is not even in our control. It takes help from other teams.

NO WAY are we in as good of shape as Tech.

I guess you're refering to where we stand if the RPI doesn't change and we don't play the last 2 games; and I'm talking about our potential to improve our postion, versus their potential to stay "ahead" of us, if you can call one game up in the loss column "ahead".

You call it "help from Baylor" and I call it games finishing out as they likely would. Baylor has already beaten both A&M and TT this year... and they're on a 3-game streak. Tech is such a weird team that you never know with them, but BU has not been a good matchup for them.

If we beat OU (lose to UT) and TT loses to BU, then we get the 6 seed and TT gets #9!! We only need to play .500 down the stretch, TT has to beat BU.

You might not agree, but I see it as 80% chance that OSU goes .500 in the last two, and less than 50% chance that TT can beat BU, even in Lubbick.

Ah... who cares.

Let's just win on Wednesday, then by the time Sunday's UT game starts we'll already know the answer.


BTW... do you really expect our RPI to remain at 70 if we split with OU/UT and win two in the Big12?... conversely, do you really expect TT's RPI to stay up there? TTech is one of those teams that might not get out of the 1st round no matter who they play (likely ISU or A&M)

[Pokevette]

Well, Jerry Palm at Collegerpi.com does a "Projected RPI" Calculation.

Right now, he shows Texas Tech losing their final game and ending with a #50 RPI. So worse case scenario, Tech is going to be in the Top-50 which has typically been good enough for an at-large look, if not a bid.

He has OSU losing their final two and ending with a #81.

Personally, I think we'll beat OU tomorrow night. I could see that moving us up to around #60. If we lose to Texas, I don't expect that to change much. So, I'm guessing we'll end up about #60. That probably will be the 8th best RPI in the Big-12.

Absent us winning in Austin (which I think is highly doubtful) OSU will end up with a worse RPI than Tech and likely well outside the "usual" range of an at-large selection.

So at 8-8, I would think OSU would need to at least be playing on Saturday in the Big-12 Tourney to have any realistic shot at an at-large bid. AT 9-7, then yes I think our RPI would improve enough to give us a reasonable hope. I just doubt we'll get the win in Austin against a team that has legitimate NCAA 1-seed aspirations.

[BourbonPoke]

I just doubt we'll get the win in Austin against a team that has legitimate NCAA 1-seed aspirations.


We beat Kansas... and we weren't supposed to. Don't count us out until the final horn blows and we have less points than them.

[CaliforniaCowboy]

Absent us winning in Austin (which I think is highly doubtful) OSU will end up with a worse RPI than Tech and likely well outside the "usual" range of an at-large selection.


BUT.... you're basing your "selection" almost entirely on RPI, and seem to be ignoring how a team played in their last 12, and apperently the fact that TT would finish with a losing record in the conference (death sentence) at 7-9, while OSU would be 8-8.

I understand your RPI angle, but I just don't think that it is the end-all, be-all for the selection committee.

At 8-8, I think we need to win at least two in the Big12 to advance to the NCAA, and with a losing conference record I would think that TT would be out, period, regardless of thier RPI.

[JimBob]

Tech has lost two games in the last week by a combined total of 102 points; that has to hurt them, no matter what their RPI.

[FloridaPoke]

Well, Jerry Palm at Collegerpi.com does a "Projected RPI" Calculation.

Right now, he shows Texas Tech losing their final game and ending with a #50 RPI. So worse case scenario, Tech is going to be in the Top-50 which has typically been good enough for an at-large look, if not a bid.

He has OSU losing their final two and ending with a #81.

Personally, I think we'll beat OU tomorrow night. I could see that moving us up to around #60. If we lose to Texas, I don't expect that to change much. So, I'm guessing we'll end up about #60. That probably will be the 8th best RPI in the Big-12.

Absent us winning in Austin (which I think is highly doubtful) OSU will end up with a worse RPI than Tech and likely well outside the "usual" range of an at-large selection.

So at 8-8, I would think OSU would need to at least be playing on Saturday in the Big-12 Tourney to have any realistic shot at an at-large bid. AT 9-7, then yes I think our RPI would improve enough to give us a reasonable hope. I just doubt we'll get the win in Austin against a team that has legitimate NCAA 1-seed aspirations.


Vette: I think you can throw out all historical guidance this year on RPI. Most pundants are saying this is the weakest bubble (by a factor of 10 some say) that we have ever seen.

There is precedence for weak RPI's (60-70) getting bids when the bubble is strong. There is no historical precedence for how RPI effects anyone when the bubble is so weak.

I believe if we beat OU, play TX tough and win a couple in KC, we will be strongly considered because the one thing the committee has emphasised so strongly over all other variables is the end of the season finish, something very few in the country have done better than this team.

If I was on the committee and watched KU destroy Tech last night, I would be asking "How in the hell did OSU beat these guys in ANY gymnasium?"

[Pokevette]

I agree (and am aware) that this is somewhat of a "weird" year for the selection process...

Two last comments:

* Right now, Jerry Palm has Texas Tech listed as one of his "first four teams out". That in my mind clearly says Tech is in a better place than OSU as of today.

* Palm's "last four teams in" right now are:
#49 Southern Illinois.
#55 Kentucky
#63 Maryland
#64 Saint Joseph's

So OSU at #72 still has some improvement needed to to get inside any of those other teams. I still think are sub-.500 record vs RPI Top-200 teams is the kiss of death in the eyes of the selection committee.

[FalseGod]

Wasn't Arkansas in a situation similar to us a few years back? I seem to remember they were near .500 going into the SEC tournament and got to the Championship and was able to get an NCAA bid? I think it would take a similar performance by us to do that if we don't go 2-0 in our final two games.