Big Dance for our Boys?

[CaliforniaCowboy]

It is entirely possible... we could get there with a good conference finish, and/or it is looking like we have the ability to win the B12 Tournament.

the Big12 will likely get 5 teams into the Big Dance (maybe 6) and we could well be one of the top 5 in conference standings.

Top 3 are UT, KU, KSU and will likely stay there or at least in the top 5.

There are 4 teams a game ahead of OSU at 6-6 and at least 3 of them would need to lose 2 (ATM, BU, OU, TT)...
ATM = TT, @OU, @BU, KU (could very easily lose 2)
BU = @CU, MU, ATM, @TT (has the best shot at winning 3, but is playing worst)
OU = @NU, ATM, @OSU, MU (has a good shot of winning 3 or more)
TT = @ATM, UT, @KU, BU (will probably lose at least 3)

The Aggies have 3 games with the folks tied at 6-6, Tech is probably out with both KU and UT left plus two of teams tied at 6-6.

It could very easily be a several way tie for 5th with an 8-8 conference record, which would almost FORCE the NCAA to pick a .500 team from the Big12.

Lots of games to go... I've been saying we could win out since we beat BU... but we've got to keep up the intensity.

We could win the Big12 tourny too... I thought that we could need somebody to knock KU off for us, but now it is apparant that we are capably of winning it . . . getting a 1st round bye would help.

[Pokevette]

As I understand it, there is no "quota" for the Big-12 to get a certain number of teams. The conference gets the number of teams in the Tourney who have deserving profiles. There have been years when we got as few as 4. There have been years when we got as many as six.

From my research, the single best indicator of whether a Big-12 teams goes to the Dance or not is RPI. Teams who have had around a 50 or better RPI have usually gone. Teams with an RPI over 50 have seldom gone.

Even with the win over Kansas, our RPI is now only #90. I think it extremely unlikely we'll do anything over the remainder of the year that can improve our RPI 40+ points.

That said, I now see OSU as being a very credilble NIT candidate. So maybe we'll still have some post-season action this year.

[jakeman]

If we go to the NCAA I think it will have to be as winners of the Big XII tourney. They might make it otherwise, stranger things have happened.

[CaliforniaCowboy]

A understand the RPI angle, and right now the Big12 is 2nd overall in RPI... very tough conference, and finishing 5th could show that the RPI ratings are not as good as they should be... just maybe.

anyway, we moved up 10 spots with the KU win, and MU, OU and UT all have RPI's higher than ours... and our past opponents could continue to climb the RPI chart.

I think that the RPI that you listed is sort of a "guarentee" line, and some teams do/have gotten in with lesser RPI's. is that right.

[CaliforniaCowboy]

check out this Big12 seeding generator

http://www.notnothing.net/bball/b12mbb.php

[Lewis the Pike]

I'm of the opinion that the only we make the NCAA is win the confrence tourney (Duh!)

OR

Win 3 of the next 4 and make the Finals of the Big 12 tourney to clinch an at Large Bid (Quite Possible)

[Pokevette]

finishing 5th could show that the RPI ratings are not as good as they should be

Agreed, the Big-12 is a solid league this year. I just remember last year when Kansas State finished 10-6 in the Conference and sole possession of 4th place, but got left out of the Tourney with an RPI of #56. I doubt we get to as good of a record or as good of an RPI as what KSU got left out with last year.

I tend to agree with those above who said we need to win the Big-12 Trny to get to the NCAA's. In my opinion, we'll have our best shot of doing that with a #6-seed. That gives us a winnable 1st round game, a 2nd round game with probably Kansas State, and then games with Texas and/or Kansas if they move ahead as expected. I think we very well could end up with a 6-seed in KC.

[snuffy]

State of the Cowboy union
http://newsok.com/article/3208318/1203919905

After winning four of its last five games, Oklahoma State is 14-12, 5-7 in the Big 12. That puts the Cowboys in a three-way tie for eighth place, behind four teams that all have 6-6 conference records.


OSU has four remaining regular-season games. The Cowboys are at Missouri on Tuesday, host Nebraska on March 1 and Oklahoma on March 5, then travel to Austin on March 9.

Winning three of four would make OSU 17-13 at the end of the regular season. Since the formation of the Big 12, 72 percent of 17-win teams have made the NCAA Tournament. Eighty percent of 18-win teams have played in the tournament.

[Lewis the Pike]

That gives us a winnable 1st round game, a 2nd round game with probably Kansas State, and then games with Texas and/or Kansas if they move ahead as expected. I think we very well could end up with a 6-seed in KC.


Pokevette, I believe all the games are winnable, correct? :confused: The score does always start at 0-0....right?:D:D:D:D:D:D

[Pokevette]

Since the formation of the Big 12, 72 percent of 17-win teams have made the NCAA Tournament. Eighty percent of 18-win teams have played in the tournament.

Pretty much an irrelevant stat. In just the last three seasons:
* Kansas State was left out in 06/07 with 22 wins, but RPI #56.
* Colorado was left out in 05/06 with 20 ins, but RPI #59
* Nebraska was left out in 05/06 with 19 wins, but RPI #96
* Texas A&M was left out 04/05 with 19 wins, but RPI #71


Almost ALL of those Big-12 teams left out with 17 or 18 wins were teams who had RPI's in excess of #50. That is EXACTLY the kind of team we will be this year (i.e., 17 or so wins, RPI over #50). That is NOT the forumula for an NCAA at-large bid. Anybody that thinks it is is dreaming.

[wickerbill]

Yeah, I don't see us getting in the NCAA tournament unless we win the Big 12 Tournament. We didn't do crap in the non-conference and started off way too poorly in the Big 12 before we started winning.

[orangeblood]

It wont happen but it will help our confidence going into next year!!!!!!! And it should help Sean with keeping his job!

[CaliforniaCowboy]

Pretty much an irrelevant stat. In just the last three seasons:
* Kansas State was left out in 06/07 with 22 wins, but RPI #56.
* Colorado was left out in 05/06 with 20 ins, but RPI #59
* Nebraska was left out in 05/06 with 19 wins, but RPI #96
* Texas A&M was left out 04/05 with 19 wins, but RPI #71


Almost ALL of those Big-12 teams left out with 17 or 18 wins were teams who had RPI's in excess of #50. That is EXACTLY the kind of team we will be this year (i.e., 17 or so wins, RPI over #50). That is NOT the forumula for an NCAA at-large bid. Anybody that thinks it is is dreaming.


I'm just wondering how many of those teams above finished 5th or better in the conference; and how did they do down the stretch (winning or losing?) Those are as big a factor as record and RPI

[Pokevette]

* Kansas State was left out in 06/07 with 22 wins, but RPI #56. FOURTH in Big-12
* Colorado was left out in 05/06 with 20 ins, but RPI #59 FIFTH
* Nebraska was left out in 05/06 with 19 wins, but RPI #96 SIXTH
* Texas A&M was left out 04/05 with 19 wins, but RPI #71 SEVENTH

[CaliforniaCowboy]

That KSU team was 17-6, 6-2 and finished the conference schedule 4-4 with a bad loss in Stillwater on their 2nd to last game.

That CU team was 15-3, 5-2 and finished the conference schedule 4-5 with their last two road games being absolute blowouts by NU (19) and KU (21).


How you finish can certainly keep you out... I'm not sure how much it helps tryying to get you in...

[FloridaPoke]

Pretty much an irrelevant stat. In just the last three seasons:
* Kansas State was left out in 06/07 with 22 wins, but RPI #56.
* Colorado was left out in 05/06 with 20 ins, but RPI #59
* Nebraska was left out in 05/06 with 19 wins, but RPI #96
* Texas A&M was left out 04/05 with 19 wins, but RPI #71


Almost ALL of those Big-12 teams left out with 17 or 18 wins were teams who had RPI's in excess of #50. That is EXACTLY the kind of team we will be this year (i.e., 17 or so wins, RPI over #50). That is NOT the forumula for an NCAA at-large bid. Anybody that thinks it is is dreaming.


I agree, with one exception. In playing around with the seed generator attached to this thread, if we win out and the above 4 mentioned teams all tank, we vault to 9-7 in league and 4th in the conference. That would put us in, I believe. Aside that very unlikely scenario, we gotta win the Tourney.

[Lewis the Pike]

Awwww screw it, Let's just win out the rest of the season....(yes including the NCAA's)

[andyokstate]

Awwww screw it, Let's just win out the rest of the season....(yes including the NCAA's)

I could live with that.