Swine Flu becomes personal

[FloridaPoke]

Swine flu has ravaged its way through my daughter's sorority house at KU, including my baby girl. Getting pretty serious on the campus in Lawrence. She was kicked out of the sorority house, but instead of coming home, she wanted to check into a hotel and fight it out. I will give her one night before going to get her. Crazy..........and the pandemic could be pretty serious before all is said and done. I am hoping she gets a mild case and builds some specific antibodies.

[GoPokes83]

Wouldn't it have been a wiser move to quarantine the house, or at least the rooms of those who have the flu rather than sending those who are sick out into the public to spread the flu around to even more people?

Hope she gets feeling better soon!

[FloridaPoke]

Wouldn't it have been a wiser move to quarantine the house, or at least the rooms of those who have the flu rather than sending those who are sick out into the public to spread the flu around to even more people?

Hope she gets feeling better soon!

You would think. She was just told to leave the house.....didn't feel like driving home....and didn't want me to drive up to get her just yet. So, she is watching PPV movies and doing room service in the Marriott. Come to think about it, she may not be sick at all :)

[osuno1]

I sure hope she gets to feeling better! Keep us updated.

[osupride97]

Would you mind telling me what the symptoms are and what she's taking / doing?

Yesterday my daughter goes to her first day of school, today she is sicker than a dog. I have a bad feeling.......

[FloridaPoke]

Typical flu symptoms:

Fever
Ache all over
Back of throat feels bad
Chest starts to get congested

Usually, flu hits the elderly the hardest. For some strange reason, the swine flu (H1N1) is hitting young adults and the elderly seem to be somewhat immune, which is strange.

CDC is now saying 60-90,000 deaths to be expected in the US, with most in the teen and young adult age range. Scary stuff and not to be taken lightly.

[jaredddick]

Typical flu symptoms:

Fever
Ache all over
Back of throat feels bad
Chest starts to get congested

Usually, flu hits the elderly the hardest. For some strange reason, the swine flu (H1N1) is hitting young adults and the elderly seem to be somewhat immune, which is strange.

CDC is now saying 60-90,000 deaths to be expected in the US, with most in the teen and young adult age range. Scary stuff and not to be taken lightly.

A sub-strain of H1N1 hit previously and was known as the Spanish Flu. Pretty rough stuff there. Turns out, young adults died because their healthy immune system attacked the virus so aggressively that it made the hosts' lungs bleed.

Fortunately, modern medicine has come a long way since 1918.

[orangegal]

CNN reporting 47 sick with swine flu at KU.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/08/24/swine.flu.college/index.html

I hope your daughter is getting better! Went to the pulmonologist yesterday and he recommended that I get regular flu and swine flu shots this year. Ugh.

Bev.

[FloridaPoke]

CNN reporting 47 sick with swine flu at KU.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/08/24/swine.flu.college/index.html

I hope your daughter is getting better! Went to the pulmonologist yesterday and he recommended that I get regular flu and swine flu shots this year. Ugh.

Bev.

She's much better already. Thank you. Seems she was fortunate enough to fight it off pretty quickly. Other girls in her house.....not so lucky.

[Pokit N]

That is scary stuff. Glad she's feeling better 60-90k? Yikes!

[TheLoveDoctor]

Just looked at the CDC website. Total flu cases are low but higher than normal in August. There have been about 8000 people hospitalized with 522 deaths in the US (including Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and USVI). This flu is going to have to crank it up to get 60k-90k deaths. Are you sure that wasn't a world wide estimate? A normal flu year still has close to 30k deaths world wide.

[GoPokes83]

From Time Magazine

H1N1 death projections: doing the math
Posted by Laura Blue Tuesday, August 25, 2009 at 12:45 pm


A new headline-grabbing report from the White House claims that swine flu could plausibly infect up to 50% of Americans, causing flu symptoms among some 60 to 120 million of them, and leading to as many as 1.8 million hospitalizations and 30,000 -90,000 deaths.

Where, exactly, do numbers like these come from? The new report was put together by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. It turns out the predictions are based on just a couple key facts:

* The virus seems to be transmitted from person to person at the same rate as in previous flu pandemics — a rate that's much higher than that of the regular seasonal flu. Rapid transmission suggests that the total number of infections could be very high.

* The death rate for people who catch H1N1 seems about the same as that for seasonal flu. The White House advisors estimate that, so far, between 1 in 1,000 and 3 in 1,000 people who have needed medical help then end up dying. Assuming that this normal death rate continues during flu season, the total number of deaths is projected to be much higher than normal because of the higher number of infections.

And that's basically it. The Council's report notes prominently and often that, even though the up-to-50%-infected scenario is plausible, it is by no means certain. That's because both of the basic facts above — the infection rate and the case fatality rate — are still a little fuzzy. They're hard to measure in the first place, and it's not totally clear whether they'll change as the pandemic progresses.

So why all the fuss if the estimates are still murky? As Homeland Security head Janet Napolitano put it yesterday in a statement: "It is not possible to predict how the 2009-H1N1 influenza virus or the upcoming influenza season will play out, but it is best that we plan and prepare for a resurgence of H1N1 flu." Things may not develop the way the White House advisors suggest, in other words, but given available evidence it's still a fine idea to brace ourselves.

There's one other very good reason that this year's flu pandemic has experts unnerved. Seasonal flu typically kills only the elderly, with 90% of victims 65 and older, according to the new White House report. (That's one of the reasons we don't consider seasonal flu a very serious disease, even though it kills thousands of Americans very year; the public just doesn't get too upset over a 92-year-old passing quietly in the night.) But the pandemic flu has hit young people and working-age adults unusually hard, just as the deadly 1918 flu did. So far 83% of U.S. deaths and 71% of hospitalizations have occurred among people aged 5 to 64. That means that every death is responsible for more years of life lost.

[Ivan]

Glad to hear she is feeling better FP. My cousin teaches at KU, I hope she stays clear of it.

[FloridaPoke]

Just looked at the CDC website. Total flu cases are low but higher than normal in August. There have been about 8000 people hospitalized with 522 deaths in the US (including Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and USVI). This flu is going to have to crank it up to get 60k-90k deaths. Are you sure that wasn't a world wide estimate? A normal flu year still has close to 30k deaths world wide.


A normal year of 30,000, when our antibodies recognize the strain......compared to as many as 90,000 when a genetic shift of this magnitude has occurred and antibodies are unlikely to ID......seems like a reasonable cautionary estimate. 95% of flu annually starts in the NE and moves SW (with the onset of cold weather) beginning in November/December, peaking in January/February and tailing off until April. The fact that there are pretty large outbreaks this time of year is cause for concern in and of and by itself. It says we haven't seen the tip of the iceberg come this winter.

What I find more fascinating is that there is something about the surface of this virus post genetic shift/drift that is (in all likelihood) recognizable by immune systems of elderly and not by youngsters. This means a previous strain that probably was experienced more than 20 or more years ago is similar enough to make a difference for those that experienced it.

But that doesn't soften the alarm for everyone.

[snuffy]

I am now home for at least 2 days. Started the day feeling like crud and went down hill from there; since one person in my office has been confirmed with swine flu and another is sick I am stuck at the house to keep it from spreading.

[GoPokes83]

I need a week off. Maybe I'll start sniffling next Monday.

How's the kid Florida?

[FloridaPoke]

She's fine now.

[orangegal]

That's great to hear!

Bev.